US inflation rises to 3.7% in September on gasoline
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in the month, over half of it from gasoline, and the Fed meets Oct. 27 and 28.
US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.4% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The indicator is the consumer price index (CPI), which tracks how the cost of a basket of goods and services changes. It came out on Oct. 14, at 6:30 a.m. Mexico City time.
Compared with August, prices rose 0.6% after adjusting for seasonal swings (0.4% the month before). Gasoline climbed 9.1% in September and, according to the BLS, accounted for more than half of that gain; over 12 months it is up 34.2%. CBS News ties the higher fuel costs to the war with Iran.
Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy and shows the underlying trend, rose 0.3% in the month and 2.6% from a year earlier.
| Indicator | August | September |
|---|---|---|
| Overall, monthly | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Overall, annual | 3.4% | 3.7% |
| Core, monthly | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Core, annual | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| Energy, monthly | 2.1% | 5.2% |
| Gasoline, monthly | 3.9% | 9.1% |
Economists had expected 3.6% for the overall index and 2.5% for core, according to CBS News, which cites FactSet. For Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, the report was "clearly hot."
The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, raised its rate by 25 basis points in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since 2023, according to CBS News and Reuters. CBS reports that after the data, the probability of another increase in October went from about 20% to about 50%. It does not say who measures that probability or at what time, and no other source confirms it.
What the Fed decides matters for the gap between its rates and Mexico's, and through that for the price of the dollar and the cost of borrowing in that currency. This article does not cover the reaction of the peso or the markets, because the sources consulted did not report it with a time stamp. Two Fed meetings remain this year: Oct. 27 and 28, and Dec. 8 and 9.
