Datafolha poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, 52% to 48%
It is the first runoff poll and reverses the Oct. 3 reading, when Lula led. The 4-point gap is double the margin of error.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the candidate of the PL party, leads President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52% to 48% of valid votes in Datafolha's first runoff poll, published Thursday, Oct. 8, according to Jornal do Commercio. Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, picks its president in the Oct. 25 runoff.
Valid votes leave out blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters, and they are the ones that decide the winner. Among all voters, Flávio has 49% and Lula 45%; 5% would cast a blank or spoiled ballot and 1% is undecided, according to Diário do Grande ABC. The poll interviewed 2 520 people aged 16 and older and has a margin of error of 2 points, at 95% confidence.
Another survey, by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg, released Oct. 9, points the same way: 52.8% for Flávio and 47.2% for Lula, with a margin of one point, according to Terra. That figure could not be confirmed in the original Bloomberg report.
Rejection is evenly split. According to The Rio Times, 46% say they would not vote for Lula and 43% say they would not vote for Flávio; only 8% reject both.
The shift came in days. Datafolha's previous reading, from Oct. 3, had Lula at 47% and Flávio at 46% among all voters. In the first round on Oct. 4, Flávio won 47.03% and Lula 45.16%, according to Terra and The Rio Times.
Lula told reporters he does not assess polls and added, according to The Rio Times, citing Folha:
The only way to win an election is by winning votes.
One item remains to be seen. According to Folha, cited by the same outlet, the MDB party, led by Baleia Rossi, will hold an event on Tuesday, Oct. 13, at which most of its state branches would declare their support for Flávio.
