Poll: Le Pen rises to 36%, with Mélenchon as her 2027 rival
The poll's fieldwork coincided with the urban violence of Oct. 17 and 18. Le Pen would win the runoff against every rival tested.
Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right National Rally, would take 36% of the vote in the first round of France's 2027 presidential election and beat any rival tested in the runoff, according to the Ifop-Fiducial poll released Tuesday.
Interviews were conducted online from the night of Saturday, Oct. 17, to Monday, Oct. 19, in the middle of the unrest, with 1 928 registered voters. The margin of error runs from 1 to 2.2 points.
In the general scenario, Le Pen rises to 36%, from 34% in the Oct. 12-14 poll and 32% in late September. If the center unites behind Gabriel Attal, she reaches 38%. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, is second in every scenario, with between 15% and 20% depending on the mix of candidates.
Mélenchon is also the rival Le Pen would beat by the widest margin: 68% to 32%.
| Rival | Le Pen | Rival |
|---|---|---|
| Édouard Philippe | 56% | 44% |
| Gabriel Attal | 58% | 42% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 57% | 43% |
| François Hollande | 59% | 41% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 68% | 32% |
Frédéric Dabi, Ifop's director general for opinion, says no other contender comes out stronger from what happened. The center, by contrast, is slipping: Philippe, a former prime minister, falls to 12% if he runs against Attal and to 15% as the bloc's only candidate, three points lower than in the previous reading.
Neither the center nor the left has a settled candidate yet, and Emmanuel Macron, who beat Le Pen in the 2022 runoff, cannot run again. A poll is a snapshot: another, from Harris Interactive with fieldwork Sept. 22-24, already had Le Pen at 69% against Mélenchon. The first round is in April 2027.
