HR Ratings cuts Mexico's sovereign rating to HR BBB
The rating agency projects broad public debt will reach 54.5% of GDP this year. Mexico's Finance Ministry says the country keeps its investment grade.
On Oct. 15, 2026, HR Ratings lowered by one notch the long-term rating on Mexico's sovereign debt, from HR BBB+ to HR BBB, with a stable outlook. The short-term rating stayed at HR3.
Mexico's Finance Ministry, known as Hacienda, replied the same day in its statement No. 82. It says Mexico remains investment grade with all eight agencies that rate its debt and stresses that HR Ratings left the outlook unchanged.
HR attributes the cut to weaker fiscal balances, which it expects to continue, and to slower economic growth. It acknowledges that Hacienda has contained the deficit since the 2024 peak, but says that was not enough to bring the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (RFSP, Mexico's broadest measure of the deficit) below 4.0% of GDP. The agency estimates 4.3% for 2025 and 4.6% for 2026, which would add up to five straight years above that threshold.
The historical balance of the RFSP, which HR uses as its measure of broad public debt, would rise from 52.6% of GDP in 2025 to 54.5% at the end of this year. That figure is 0.5 percentage points above Hacienda's and 0.8 above the agency's previous review.
| Year | % of GDP |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 52.6 |
| 2026 | 54.5 |
| 2027 | 56.4 |
| 2030 | 61.2 |
| 2033 | 65.6 |
On growth, HR expects GDP to expand 1.3% in real terms in 2026, against the 1.5% Hacienda forecasts. It adds that spending is rising faster than revenue. Interest payments on the debt, known as the financial cost, already exceed the revenue-sharing transfers that states and municipalities receive.
Hacienda's response and what comes next
Hacienda countered with its own figures. It says the 2025 fiscal consolidation was 1.3% of GDP, the largest since 1990, and that GDP in the second quarter of 2026 grew 2.1% from a year earlier. Those are figures from the statement and were not checked here against INEGI, Mexico's statistics agency.
According to Expansión, the agency would cut the rating again if the RFSP stay above 5% of GDP for a prolonged period or if long-term growth falls below 1%. The reaction of the peso and the bond curve to the decision was still pending at the time of writing.
