Antonelli can clinch the F1 title in Austin with a win

Kimi Antonelli can wrap up the Formula 1 world championship at the United States Grand Prix in Austin, Oct. 23 to 25. The Mercedes driver has 340 points, 102 more than teammate George Russell, who has 238, according to Formula1.com.

Autosport lays out two conditions. Antonelli has to win in Austin, and Russell cannot score more than two points, which means finishing ninth or lower. With 25 points for the win and Russell at that position, the gap would reach 125.

That number is the threshold. Autosport calculates that 150 points remain on the table and that, after Austin, five rounds are left with a maximum of 125 for winning them all. With a 125-point lead, Russell could only tie him, and the tiebreaker on race wins favors Antonelli: eight victories to three. Autosport does not mention a sprint race in Austin, so its math does not account for one.

If Antonelli wins, Verstappen, on 221 points, is out of the title fight, according to GPblog. The outlet adds that Hamilton, on 229, should not finish better than fifth. Autosport frames the scenario in points rather than positions.

Antonelli arrives in Austin with that cushion after finishing third in Singapore, where Russell was ninth. Before that race the gap was 84 points.

If either condition fails, the championship stays open. GPblog says Antonelli would then have to wait for Mexico to try to close it out. The Mexico City Grand Prix runs Oct. 30 to Nov. 1 at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, followed by Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, which closes the season on Dec. 4 to 6, according to the Formula1.com calendar.