Trudy weakens to Category 2, passing 105 miles off Jalisco
The storm is no longer a major hurricane and is staying offshore, but Mexico's weather service still expects very heavy rain on the southern Jalisco coast and 13 to 20 foot waves.
Hurricane Trudy weakened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale and passed about 170 kilometers (105 miles) southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, on Sunday, Oct. 18, without making landfall, according to intermediate advisory 21A from the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The advisory, issued at noon Mexico City time, places the center 265 kilometers (165 miles) west of Manzanillo, in the state of Colima.
Wind figures differ by source. Mexico's National Weather Service (SMN) reported sustained winds of 165 km/h (103 mph) and gusts of 205 km/h (127 mph), according to Expansión. The U.S. advisory gives 155 km/h (96 mph) sustained, a northwest motion at 13 km/h (8 mph) and a minimum pressure of 974 millibars.
For land areas, the SMN forecasts:
- Very heavy rain, 50 to 75 millimeters (2 to 3 inches), on the coast and in the south of Jalisco.
- Heavy rain, 25 to 50 millimeters (1 to 2 inches), in Colima and southern Nayarit.
- Gusts of 80 to 100 km/h (50 to 62 mph) in Jalisco and Colima, with sustained wind of 50 to 70 km/h (31 to 43 mph).
- Waves of 4 to 6 meters (13 to 20 feet) in those two states and 2 to 3 meters (7 to 10 feet) off the coast of Michoacán.
The SMN keeps a tropical storm warning area from Playa Pérula, Jalisco, to San Blas, Nayarit, including the Islas Marías. It lifted the hurricane watch along several stretches, according to El Informador. Expansión adds that waves and wind should ease in both states through Sunday.
Friday's forecast was different. The SMN expected a major hurricane about 65 kilometers (40 miles) from Manzanillo in the early hours of Sunday, as our Oct. 16 report (in Spanish) explained. The track stayed offshore and the intensity dropped.
What comes next, according to the U.S. advisory: the center will move away from the mainland coast and pass south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. Forecasters expect rapid weakening and a possible downgrade to a post-tropical low on Tuesday night. Civil protection agencies in Jalisco and Colima have not published, in what was consulted, a tally of damage.
