Brazil votes in a runoff too close to call
Polls close at 2 p.m. in Mexico City, and the final surveys put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by anywhere from under a point to a little over three.
Brazilians pick their next president today in a runoff between Lula da Silva, of the Workers' Party (PT), who is seeking to stay in office, and Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator for the Liberal Party (PL) and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Polls opened at 8 a.m. in Brasília and close nine hours later, at 2 p.m. in Mexico City. Anyone still in line then can vote. About 158.7 million people are eligible, including some 919,000 Brazilians registered abroad, 32% more than in 2022. Six governors are also on the ballot.
Flávio came out ahead in the Oct. 4 first round, with 47% and 56.1 million votes to Lula's 45.16% and 53.8 million. That was better than the polls had predicted. Turnout fell short: abstention reached 21.08%, the highest since 1998.
The final polls give Flávio the edge, but barely. The figures are valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots:
| Pollster | Published | Flávio | Lula |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veritá | Oct. 24 | 51.56% | 48.44% |
| Datafolha | Oct. 24 | 51% | 49% |
| Quaest | Oct. 24 | 51% | 49% |
| BTG/Nexus | Oct. 19 | 50.3% | 49.7% |
A narrow margin
Datafolha and Quaest carry a margin of error of two points, so the gap between the candidates falls inside it. BTG/Nexus, with a margin of ±2 points, has Lula ahead in the Northeast and Flávio in the North, South, Southeast and Center-West. Women lean toward Lula, men toward Flávio, and voters 16 to 24 are split.
The campaign revolved around cross accusations of corruption, insults and fake news, with only two debates. The last one ended with no clear winner.
With a gap that small, the Superior Electoral Court's count could end with a lead of just a few points. Whoever wins will run Latin America's largest economy from Jan. 1, 2027.
